Fauci-Birx climate models?
Honest, evidence-based climate models could avoid trillions of dollars in policy blunders
Paul Driessen and David R. Legates
President Trump and his Coronavirus Task Force presented some frightening numbers during their March 31 White House briefing. Based on now 2-week-old data and models, as many as 100,000 Americans at the models’ low end, to 2.2 million at their high end, could die from the fast-spreading virus, they said.
However, the President, Vice President Pence, and Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx hastened to add, those high-end numbers are based on computer models. And they are “unlikely” if Americans keep doing what they are doing now to contain, mitigate and treat the virus. Although that worst-case scenario “is possible,” it is “unlikely if we do the kinds of things that we’re essentially outlining right now.”
On March 31, Dr. Fauci said, the computer models were saying that, even with full mitigation, it is “likely” that America could still suffer at least 100,000 deaths. But he then added a very important point:
“The question is, are the models really telling us what’s going on? When someone creates a model, they put in various assumptions. And the models are only as good and as accurate as the assumptions you put into them. As we get more data, as the weeks go by, that might change. We feed the data back into the models and relook at the models.” The data can change the assumptions – and thus the models’ forecasts.
“If we have more data like the NY-NJ metro area, the numbers could go up,” Dr. Birx added. But if the numbers coming in are more like Washington or California, which reacted early and kept their infection and death rates down – then the models would likely show lower numbers. “We’re trying to prevent that logarithmic increase in New Orleans and Detroit and Chicago – trying to make sure those cities work more like California than like the New York metro area.” That seems to be happening, for the most part.
If death rates from corona are misattributed or inflated, if other model assumptions should now change, if azithromycin, hydroxychloroquine and other treatments, and people’s immunities are reducing infections – then business shutdowns and stay-home orders could (and should) end earlier, and we can go back to work and life, rebuild America’s and the world’s economies … and avoid different disasters, like these:
Millions of businesses that never reopen. Tens of millions of workers with no paychecks. Tens of trillions of dollars vanished from our economy. Millions of families with lost homes and savings. Millions of cases of depression, stroke, heart attack, domestic violence, suicide, murder-suicide, and early death due to depression, obesity and alcoholism, due to unemployment, foreclosure and destroyed dreams.
In other words, numerous deaths because of actions taken to prevent infections and deaths from COVID.
It is vital that they recheck the models and assumptions – and distinguish between COVID-19 deaths actually due to the virus … and not just associated with or compounded by it, but primarily due to age, obesity, pneumonia or other issues. We can’t afford a cure that’s worse than the disease – or a prolonged and deadly national economic shutdown that could have been shortened by updated and corrected models.
Now just imagine: What if we could have that same honest, science-based approach to climate models?
What if the White House, EPA, Congress, UN, EU and IPCC acknowledged that climate models are only as good and as accurate as the assumptions built into them? What if – as the months and years went by and we got more real-world temperature, sea level and extreme weather data – we used that information to honestly refine the models? Would the assumptions and therefore the forecasts change dramatically?
What if we use real science to help us understand Earth’s changing climate and weather? And base energy and other policies on real science that honestly examines manmade and natural influences on climate?
Many climate modelers claim we face existential manmade climate cataclysms caused by our use of fossil fuels. They use models to justify calls to banish fossil fuels that provide 80% of US and global energy; close down countless industries, companies and jobs; totally upend our economy; give trillions of dollars in subsidies to fossil fuel replacement companies; and drastically curtail our travel and lifestyles.
Shouldn’t we demand that these models be verified against real-world evidence? Natural forces have caused climate changes and extreme weather events throughout history. What proof is there that what we see today is due to fossil fuel emissions, and not to those same natural forces? We certainly don’t want energy “solutions” that don’t work and are far worse than the supposed manmade climate and weather ‘virus.’
And we have the climate data. We’ve got years of data. The data show the models don’t match reality.
Model-predicted temperatures are more than 0.5 degrees F above actual satellite-measured average global temperatures – and “highest ever” records are mere hundredths of a degree above previous records from 50 to 80 years ago. Actual hurricane, tornado, sea level flood, drought, and other historic records show no unprecedented trends or changes, no looming crisis, no evidence that humans have replaced the powerful natural forces that have always driven climate and weather in the real world outside the modelers’ labs.
Real science – and real scientists – seek to understand natural phenomena and processes. They pose hypotheses that they think best explain what they have witnessed, then test them against actual evidence, observations and data. If the hypotheses (and predictions based on them) are borne out by their subsequent observations or findings, the hypotheses become theories, rules or laws of nature – at least until someone finds new evidence that pokes holes in their assessments, or devises better explanations.
Real scientists often employ computers to analyze data more quickly and accurately, depict or model complex natural systems, or forecast future events or conditions. But they test their models against real-world evidence. If the models, observations and predictions don’t match up, real scientists modify or discard the models, and the hypotheses behind them. They engage in robust discussion and debate.
Real scientists don’t let models or hypotheses become substitutes for real-world data, evidence and observations. They don’t alter or “homogenize” raw or historic data to make it look like the models actually work. They don’t tweak their models after comparing predictions to actual subsequent observations, to make it look like the models “got it right.” They don’t “lose” or hide data and computer codes, restrict peer review to closed circles of like-minded colleagues who protect one another’s reputations and funding, claim “the debate is over,” or try to silence anyone who asks inconvenient questions or criticizes their claims or models. Climate modelers have done all of this – and more.
Put bluntly, what climate modelers are essentially saying is this: We don’t need data; we have models. If real world observations don’t conform to our computer model predictions, the real world must be wrong.
Climate models have always overstated the warming. But even though modelers have admitted that their models are “tuned” – revised after the fact to make it look like they predicted temperatures accurately – the modelers have made no attempt to change the climate sensitivity to match reality. Why not?
They know disaster scenarios sell. Disaster forecasts keep them employed, swimming in research money – and empowered to tell legislators and regulators that humanity must we take immediate, draconian action to eliminate all fossil fuel use – the economic, human and environmental consequences be damned. And they probably will never admit their mistakes or duplicity, much less be held accountable.
“Wash your hands! You could save millions of lives!” has far more impact than “You could save your own life, your kids’ lives, dozens of lives.” When it comes to climate change, you’re saving the planet.
With Mann-made climate change, we are always shown the worst-case scenario: RCP 8.5, the “business-as-usual” … ten times more coal use in 2100 than now … “total disaster.” Alarmist climatologists know their scenario has maybe a 0.1% likelihood, and assumes no new energy technologies over the next 80 years. But energy technologies have evolved incredibly over the last 80 years – since 1940, the onset of World War II! Who could possibly think technologies won’t change at least as much going forward?
Disaster scenarios are promoted because most people don’t know any better – and voters and citizens won’t accept extreme measures and sacrifices unless they are presented with extreme disaster scenarios.
The Fauci-Birx team is trying to do science-based modeling for the ChiCom-WHO coronavirus – feeding updated data into their models. Forecasts for infections and deaths are down significantly. Thankfully.
So now we must demand honest, factual, evidence-based climate model as well. No more alarmists and charlatans setting climate and energy policy. Our economy, livelihoods, lives and liberties are too vital.
The fact is, models are also only as good as the number of variables they can handle, and the data quality for every variable. There is no way models can possibly factor in the hundreds of infection, treatment, death and other variables associated with COVID – and Earth’s climate is vastly more complex. Simply put, models play a role but should never be a primary driving force in setting important public policies.
Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of books and articles on energy, environment, climate and human rights issues. David R. Legates is a Professor of Climatology at the University of Delaware.
My Brothers and Sisters in Christ:
Resurrection Sunday is the celebration that Jesus Christ’ conquered death by rising from the dead! He has and also gives us victory over death in eternity! His resurrection symbolizes the eternal life that is given to all who believe in Him! His resurrection gave final proof that He alone is the Son of God and has conquered death once and for all.
Therefore, believe and worship Him on this very literal Resurrection Sunday, April 12, 2020 and may you all experience His Grace, Love, and Mercy during this time of testing, knowing that He has conquered death for us who believe on Him! BE
BLESSED BELOVED IN CHRIST
Reverend Steven Louis Craft, M.Div
Many home-schooling parents are concerned about their children getting into a good college or university after completing their studies at home. Will they need a diploma from school, is often asked. The fact is that they don’t. Colleges and mainly universities evaluate applicants on the basis of achievement tests. Admissions people are often impressed by the applications of home-schoolers who usually do very well on SATs and CATs. In fact, some home-schoolers have gotten scholarships to some very prestigious institutions. For example, Joshua and Zachary Kitchen, the Sons of Mr. and Mr. Ron Kitchen of Cincinnati, are now both attending the U.S. Naval Academy at Annapolis. Both boys ended their formal schooling with the second grade and were thereafter home-schooled right through high school by their mother. Both boys took SAT tests at a local public school and both received scores in the 99th percentile. Each received a full four-year Naval ROTC scholarship and completed one year at Miami University (Ohio), with Naval ROTC service, while waiting for an appointment to Annapolis. Joshua, 20, is now a 3rd Class Midshipman (sophomore), while Zachary, 18, has just entered the academy as a “plebe” (freshman).
Another inspiring story is that of Dew Colfax who never attended a formal school but at the age of 18 accepted a scholarship at Harvard University after rejecting similar offers from Yale, Princeton, and Amherst. Drew and his three brothers were raised on a remote mountaintop ranch Some 120 miles north of San Francisco. There they were educated by their parents, David and Micki Colfax, at their Mountain School — the ranch house of their sheep-and-goat operation. Drew’s brother Grant, 22, is an honor student at Harvard. Reed, 17, is a mathematical whiz, and Garth, 11, works in ceramics and painting. Colfax and his wife, unhappy with the quality of public schools, decided to teach their children at home. Their school is registered with Mendocino County as a private school, and he and his in wife divide theistruction chores. Laura Clark of Princeton, where only 1 in 6 applicants was accepted in 1986, said: “Drew was one of our most extraordinary applicant ts. He is home-educated and has demonstrated an amazing academic excellence. . He is truly a thinker. We’ve never seen a kid like this.” When he was 16, Drew installed a solar-powered electrical system that gave power to the ranch for the first time in more than 10 years. He is an avid stargazer who has read more than 300 books on astronomy, writes a weekly astronomy column for the local newspaper, and built his own telescope. and an observatory to house it. He ground the telescope mirror by hand. Drew’s father, asked if Drew were a genius, said, “No, no. He and his brothers are ordinary bright kids that work hard. They like to take a problem and solve it.” Some have brought up the possibility of inherited superior intelligence and ability to explain this family’s remarkable achievements, rather than attributing it to good home-schooling. The real story is that the two younger brothers are adopted: one is Eskimo and the other Black.
(Data from Orange County Register°, 4/28/86, and New American, 6/16/86).
(This article was a speech Sam Blumenfeld gave in 1986. Please visit the Sam Blumenfeld Archives: http://campconstitution.net/sam-blumenfeld-archive/
Camp Constitution’s 1st Quarter Report for 2020
YouTube Channel: We are averaging 16,000 views a month, and have approximately 500 new subscribers. We have doubled our views in the past few weeks.
The Sam Blumenfeld Archive: We had over 312,000 hits, 9,681 Alpha-Phonics downloaded, 3,100 Alpha-Phonics Instructions Workbook downloaded and 2,000 downloads of Sam’s other books
Camp Constitution Radio on Podomatic: Our listenership has almost doubled over last year with 2.244 visits and 1,043 shows downloaded.
Facebook Page: We have 2,700 total likes with two hundred new likes over the past three months.
Speaker’s Bureau: Due to the Coronavirus, we had several events cancelled including a home school show, and a float in the St. Patrick’s Day Parade. Prior to the middle of March, we had eight speaking engagements which included an all-day seminar in New York hosted by the Gimenez family. We hosted two videos showing of the movie Unplanned.
Information Tables and Outreach: We had information tables at several venues, and a first-time presence at the annual March for Life in Washington, D.C.
Camp Constitution’s Website: We are seeing a steady monthly increase with 6,268 views in the first quarter. http://www.campconstitution.net
Camp Constitution Press: We published Sam Blumenfeld’s School-Induced Dyslexia and How It Deforms a Child’s Brain
Camp Constitution Book Sales: We raised approximately $1,200 from our Amazon account, and the sale of books on our Facebook page.
Camp Constitution Media: We were on hand to videotape an event in Northern Maine with Coach Dave Daubenmire, and David Author; a presentation by Stephen Coughlin, one of the nation’s top experts on Islam held in Virginia; a presentation on George Washington’s Crossing of the Delaware by historian, and author Robert Allison in Greater Boston sponsored by the Sons of the Revolution, and a wreath laying ceremony in Boston to honor the victims of the Boston Massacre sponsored by the Daughters of the American Revolution. We also videotaped several presentations which we sponsored.
Article V Convention: A resolution in New Hampshire to rescind their state’s application was overwhelmingly passed in committee and is expected to be passed by the full House. We were recently interviewed on an internet show hosted by Evan Mulch to discuss the Conference of States.
Camp Constitution in the News: Our Christian flag lawsuit was back in the news after a federal judge ruled against us, and our legal team Liberty Counsel appealed the decision. Dozens of media outlets covered the story including World Net Daily and Christian News
Radio and Cable TV: In addition to our weekly radio show, we were interviewed on several regional radio shows, and continue to appear on a bi-weekly basis on WSMN-AM Nashua, NH.
A Camp of Our Own? While a camp supporter had to withdraw an offer to help us buy a camp, another person came forward with an offer. The camp facility that we were interested in was sold; however, there may be another facility in the region available to us soon.
The Lane House and Learning Center: Rev. Steve and Mrs. Edith Craft plan to move into the house in late April to manage the center. Camp Constitution has already sponsored several events at the house, and will be using it on a regular basis. It will also house Sam Blumenfeld’s papers and books including some of his original manuscripts.
Camp Constitution’s 12th Annual Family Camp: The camp will run from July 19-24 at the Singing Hills Christian Camp and Conference Center in Plainfield, NH. Confirmed instructors include Alex Newman, CJ Pearson, Rev. Steve Craft, Lord Christopher Monckton, Catherine White, Professor Willie Soon, Dr. Felecia Nace, and Debbie Bacigalupi. We are now taking registrations https://campconstitution.registration.payscape.com/ are offering a $50. Discount to those who register by June. You can download promotional brochures here http://campconstitution.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2020-Brochure.pdf or I can send you some hard copy brochures.
Here are a few suggestions to help us expand our program and influence:
* Write an article for our camp blog.
* Become a donor. Donations can be made via our PayPal account accessed from our website http://www.campconstitution.net
* Attend our annual family camp or, if you can’t attend, help sponsor a worthy young person or family.
*Sponsor a camp speaker and/or host a “What is Camp Constitution Presentation
, * Subscribe, view and share our videos on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCN7ME18Q1xiqcrPEn5h5FbA
* Keep Camp Constitution in your prayers
While the Coronavirus shutdowns have canceled our scheduled events for the next month or so, we remain busy reaching out to people with our resources, and programs. A special thanks to all those who make Camp Constitution possible. May God bless our nation in these troubled times and may He keep your family safe and healthy.
Hal Shurtleff, Director
Driving around in his unsustainable SUV, Marty Walsh, the Mayor of Boston, was horrified to see people playing basketball in violation of all of the new rules and regulations that have been enacted. So, what would have been construed as an act of vandalism or at the very least a public nuance just a week ago, he ordered that all of the basketball nets in Boston’s parks and playground be zip tied.
Mayor Walsh, the same man who back in February called people racist for not going to Chinatown for fear of getting the virus, turned Boston into a sanctuary city, promotes unsafe sexual activities that weaken the immune system, and signed an ordinance to ban plastic bags and promote the use of unsanitary reusable bags, knows what is best for Bostonians. There are more people in an isle of a Boston grocery store than on a basketball court, but common sense is one of the first victims of government overreach, While he closes down city parks, and churches, he and Governor Baker consider abortion mills “essential” and have allowed them to remain open.
How the 1918 Flu Pandemic Affected the Small Town of North Andover and the Nearby City of Lawrence
Ted Tripp Sr. Political Reporter
Boston Broadside April 2020
In 1918 the country was fighting a war in Europe and the newspapers were filled with stories of Allied progress, military battles and the fate of local residents.
Against this backdrop, North Andover, a town of about 6150 at the time, began the year like many others. A coal shortage had driven up prices and caused concerns about the affordability of heating public buildings, the textile mills and even private dwellings. In June, Johnson High School graduated 19 seniors with 6 going on to higher education. One student, Charles M. Tucker, to the delight of school officials, was accepted at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The class poem that year was “America the Beautiful,” by Katharine Lee Bates.
The Board of Health was complaining that its $700 budget had been cut by $100 from the previous year. It had actually hoped for additional funds to address the issues of infant mortality and milk inspection. Board members noted that the entire budget had to pay all their expenses, including those for “any person ill at any hospital with any contagious disease, the expense of our citizens in the Tuberculosis Hospitals, the expenses of placarding and fumigating, the expenses incident to the free distribution of diphtheria antitoxin, vaccine, and diphtheria and typhoid examinations, and the salary of the Slaughtering Inspector.”
Much of the summer saw citizens raising money for the war effort by selling Liberty Bonds. On the agricultural side, the town’s Moth Department noted that residents could purchase arsenate of lead for insect control at the low price of 12 cents/pound. On August 24th the Stevens and Osgood Mills began their annual 10-day shutdown for equipment maintenance and workers’ vacations.
School started Wednesday, September 4th, with several new teachers because some teachers were lost to other districts where men went off to war. Early September also brought a lot of excitement with the Red Sox travelling to Chicago to face the Cubs in the 1918 World Series.
Unknown to the residents up to this time, of course, the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 had already started. It had begun in March at Fort Riley, Kansas where over 500 soldiers had contracted the so-called Spanish Influenza. Also, at the end of August, many sailors in Boston had become sick with the grippe, as the flu was commonly called at the time, and the overflow of patients had to be sent to the Chelsea Naval Hospital. Finally, in September hundreds of soldiers at nearby Camp Devens became ill and scores were dying every day.
Although there had been several stories in the newspapers about the sickness, area residents first heard about the severity and extent of the problem on September 23rd when the Lawrence Telegram published three front-page stories: “Local Soldiers Ill at Camp Devens,” “Spanish Grippe on U.S. Transport” and “No Abatement in Grippe Epidemic.” Front-page stories about the epidemic continued for about a month, although news about the War always – always – took the headlines no matter how many died from the flu.
On September 26th, at the urging of state officials, the Lawrence Board of Health closed all public, private and parochial schools and theaters until at least October 7th. By noon the next day, Lawrence had reported 279 cases of influenza or the flu. Up to this point, North Andover only had a handful of non-serious influenza cases. This was about to change.
On October 1st, the Lawrence Telegram reported in a front-page article that Lawrence health officials “Have the Situation Under Control.” They were badly mistaken.
Also on October 1st, the Board of Health and selectmen in North Andover closed Johnson High School and the eight elementary schools until further notice. Also ordered closed were the Stevens Library and Red Cross Center. The Methodist Episcopal Church and St. Paul’s Church suspended Sunday services.
By October 2nd, the North Andover Board of Health had reported 50-60 cases of influenza, but only a few were serious. Still, Boston’s Cardinal O’Connor decided to close a two-week mission which had just begun at St. Michael’s (Catholic) Church.
The next day, Massachusetts health officials reported 8000 new Spanish Influenza cases with 151 deaths statewide, in just the previous 24 hours. They urged but did not require that all churches across the commonwealth be closed. Influenza cases were still increasing throughout the area.
On October 4th, the North Andover Board of Health urged the pastors at all five local churches to suspend their services on the upcoming Sunday. That Sunday, October 6th, Rev. George W. Haley cancelled masses at St. Michael’s – the first time in 50 years a pastor had done so.
By October 7th, two of the town’s three primary physicians, Dr. F. S. Smith and Dr. J. J. Daly, had become ill with influenza and were unable to help others who were sick. On the same day, North Andover reported the deaths of Mabel England, 17, Ernest Kennett, 27, and William Thomson, 32, all from the epidemic.
The North Andover Board of Health thus put out an urgent call across New England to all physicians for help, but since many towns were struggling with influenza problems of their own, no doctor was available. Then a stroke of good luck came along. The U.S. Public Health Service realized just days earlier that there would be a physician shortage and, with an emergency $1 million grant from Congress, set out to hire 1000 doctors and 700 nurses from around the country to help where most needed. Thirty physicians from Indiana who volunteered were pressed into service and sent to Boston. One of these, Dr. William Conner, although “fatigued from his trip,” immediately reported to North Andover. When he came he pronounced that “He was all ready to fight.”
By October 10th, over 200 cases of influenza had been reported in North Andover and they were increasing at the rate of 30 per day.
This would turn out to be the high point in the epidemic. On October 11th, the North Andover Board of Health would for the first time report fewer cases than the day before.
On Monday October 14th, North Andover health officials reported there were only 15 new cases over the weekend and none were serious. Also, the Lawrence Telegram, for the first time in weeks, had no stories on the front page about the influenza epidemic. As quickly as the epidemic had hit, it started to rapidly decline.
Tent City in Lawrence to treat 1918 influenza victims – Lawrence History Center
Even though the worst was over, caution was still the rule. The North Andover schools would not reopen until Monday, October 28th, thus being closed for a total of four weeks. Some churches would not resume Sunday services until early November.
Dr. Fred Smith, the school physician, reported that there was a recurrence of the flu in the schools in December, but it was a “milder type” and no deaths were reported.
The official tally for 1918 flu in North Andover was 312 cases of influenza with 18 deaths. Another 14 died of pneumonia, which at that time was difficult to distinguish from influenza deaths. Some of these could have easily been caused by the Spanish Influenza. All this was out of a population of about 6150.
The consensus was that North Andover had been lucky with so few deaths, particularly compared to Lawrence where over 2000 had perished from the epidemic. The town’s Board of Health said: “That our death rate was surprisingly low, was due in a very great measure to the untiring faithfulness of Dr. Conner. The Town of North Andover is rightfully thankful that so able a man as Dr. Conner could help in the time of its great need.” Dr. Conner was the physician from Indiana who had volunteered to come east and help fight the epidemic.
Dr. Conner was obviously helpful, but the real reason North Andover got off easy was probably more due to its rural nature and the suspension of public gatherings. Conversely, Lawrence was much harder hit because of its crowded conditions and high population — about 92,600 or 12,200 more people than today — and the refusal of its Board of Health to close the city’s “saloons.” It was not politically possible to shut down the saloons or bars because many of the male mill workers congregated there after their shift and during the day many merchants conducted their business in such places.
One of the more interesting aspects of researching the influenza epidemic is how the area newspapers of the day treated the health problem. The front pages still allocated a majority of the space to the war in Europe, even during the worst of the Spanish Influenza crisis.
The simple answer for this distribution of news is twofold. First, the war was big news and soldiers were dying at a fairly high rate, including many local residents. Entire communities were committed to support the effort with the involvement of many of their citizens. Second, deaths due to illness, and particularly from contagious diseases, were still fairly common at the time.
North Andover in that era recorded about 100 deaths a year. The 1917 listing by cause reported: heart disease – 13; pneumonia – 10; apoplexy – 9; carcinoma – 8; phthisis [tuberculosis] – 7; old age – 3, diphtheria – 2; typhoid – 1. Although there was no separate listing for influenza, some of the pneumonia deaths could have easily been caused by the common flu. Note that the communicable diseases that are rare or unheard of today still took lives at the time. Also, the Board of Health that year reported “placarding” 14 houses with notices of a contagious disease present.
A similar situation existed in Lawrence, but worse. While over 2000 died from the 1918 epidemic, deaths from flu were common due to the crowded living conditions. For example, in 1917 Lawrence reported 1391 deaths due to influenza and in 1919, 1280 deaths. What made the difference in 1918 was the high rate of infection and the high death rate, both in a very short period of time.
Overall, the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 killed more than 550,000 Americans and an estimated 20-50 million people worldwide.
1918 Public Health Notice
Rules to Avoid Respiratory Diseases
(By the Surgeon General of the U. S. Army)
1. Avoid needless crowding – influenza is a crowd disease.
2. Smother your cough and sneezes – others do not want the germs which
you would throw away.
3. Your nose, not your mouth, was made to breathe through – get the habit.
4. Remember the three C’s – a clean mouth, clean skin, and clean clothes.
5. Try to keep cool when you walk and warm when you ride and sleep.
6. Open the windows – always at home at night, at the office when practicable.
7. Food will win the war if you give it a chance – help by choosing and
chewing your food well.
8. Your fate may be in your own hands – wash your hands before eating.
9. Don’t let the waste products of digestion accumulate – drink a glass or
two of water on getting up.
10. Don’t use a napkin, towel, spoon, fork, glass, or cup which has been
used by another person and not washed.
11. Avoid tight clothes, tight shoes, tight gloves – seek to make nature your
ally not your prisoner.
12. When the air is pure breathe all of it you can – breathe deeply.
This article originally appeared in the Boston Broadside Please visit their website: http://www.bostonbroadside.com/
Yes, our 12th Annual Family Camp is still on, and we are accepting registrations–http://www.campconstitution.net
Sam Blumenfeld said that government schools were “sick, obsolete, dinosaurs.” Hopefully, one of the positive impacts of the Coronavirus will be that thousands of parents will come to the same conclusion as their children are learning from home.
Here is a speech Sam did in 1996 exposing Outcome Based Education-another top down scheme to destroy the minds of our nation’s children and give more power to big government:
This video is available in MP3 on the Sam Blumenfeld Archives: http://campconstitution.net/sam-blumenfeld-archive/
“We are hard-pressed on every side, yet not crushed; we are perplexed, but not in despair.” 2 Corinthians 4:8
The Need for Adaptability and Innovation Amidst Disruption and Disaster
Like many millions of people around the world, our plans and programmes have been disrupted by a spate of cancellations, closed venues and closed borders. Planned missions to Kenya and Sudan are now postponed because of international travel bans and country lockdowns. A number of conferences, seminars, services, workshops and education history tours have had to be cancelled in response to government regulations and venues cancelling on us. Yet, despite the extraordinary international reaction to the coronavirus pandemic, we have been busier than ever, as we seek to respond to the changing situation and new challenges with adaptability and initiative. “Come, my people, enter your chambers and shut your doors behind you; hide yourself, as it were, for a little moment, until the indignation is past.” Isaiah 26:20
Evangelism Despite Epidemic
We have already run out of our Spiritual Diseases tract which is being prepared for reprint. Click here https://www.livingstonefellowship.co.za/uploads/1/0/4/1/104153586/spiritual_diseases.pdf for Spiritual Diseases in a PDF tract form, that can be printed for distribution, or forwarded digitally. Lenora and I dealt with the Coronavirus Crisis in a From the Frontline podcast: Pandemic, Panic, Propaganda and Priorities. Please listen to it and share it through your social media: https://fromthefrontline.podbean.com/e/from-the-frontline-episode-109-spiritual-diseases-and-the-biblical-cure/
Missions in a Time of Mass Hysteria
You can view a video of our Reformation Society presentation: Pandemic, Panic, Propaganda and Priorities on our Vimeo channel, click here. You can read the Frontline article, Is the Coronavirus God’s Judgment on a Sinful and Godless Generation? on our www.FrontlineMissionSA.org website. You can listen to my sermon: A Biblical Response to Pandemics on Sermon Audio, click here. We have many Evangelistic and discipleship tracts available for download, or forwarding, on our www.LivingstoneFellowship.co.za website, including in Afrikaans, Danish, French, German, Netherlands and Russian languages.
New Evangelistic Resources from Living Waters
We have screened the new Living Waters film from Ray Comfort, Pandemic. You can view this excellent, topical and most relevant evangelistic film, Pandemic, here. Ray Comfort has also produced a Living Waters tract: 7 Ways to Protect Yourself from the Coronavirus, click here to download for printing and distribution. In South Africa, you can obtain Way of the Master materials from Living Waters Africa (email: firstname.lastname@example.org, website: www.LivingWatersAfrica.co.za).
The Importance of Hygiene, Body, Mind and Spirit
Hygiene is always important. Not only physical, but also mental, emotional and spiritual hygiene. A renewed emphasis on the importance of regular and thorough washing of hands with soap and water is to be welcomed. We should also be concerned for cleaning our belts, bags, computers, cell phones, accessories, boots, shoes, car, home and workplace. Physical hygiene is important.
However, mental hygiene is no less important. The books we read, the magazines we subscribe to, the websites we visit, the emails we receive, the films we watch, the education we receive, or pay for our children to receive. Beware of ideological diseases like secular humanism, situation ethics, evolutionism and Marxism. The Coronavirus may have killed thousands, but Communism has killed well over 100 million, just in the 20th century. “Finally, brethren, whatever things are true, whatever things are noble, whatever things are just, whatever things are pure, whatever things are lovely, whatever things are of good report, if there is any virtue and if there is anything praiseworthy – meditate on these things… and the God of peace will be with you.” Philippians 4:8-9
We also need to be concerned for our emotional hygiene. The music we listen to, the art we display in our home, the friends we have. What we see influences what we think. What we listen to and look at influences our emotions. How we think and feel influences how we act. “Rejoice always, pray without ceasing, in everything give thanks; for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus for you.” 1 Thessalonians 5:16-18
Quarantine Survival Strategy
As part of our quarantine survival strategy, we need to audit and evaluate where we are and address all issues of contamination. This is a good time to detox, mentally, emotionally, physically and spiritually. “Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways acknowledge Him and He shall direct your paths. Do not be wise in your own eyes; fear the Lord and depart from evil. It will be health to your flesh and strength to your bones.” Proverbs 3:5-8
Beware of spiritual diseases. Beware of bad influences, false teachers, false shepherds and false prophets.
Redeem the Time
We have constantly been complaining that we do not have enough time. Well, now we all have more time than we had planned for! Amidst cancellations, shutdowns and lockdowns, we now have time to put first things first. Revive our Quiet Time. Bible before breakfast. Scripture before supper. Do a thorough job of Repentance and Restitution. Read. Clean up. Tidy up. Sort out. Plan and prepare. This is a time for Reflection, Repentance, Reformation and Revival.
Restore your Relationship with God and Revive your Devotional Life
The first mission I worked for, Hospital Christian Fellowship, repeatedly proclaimed: “More people pass through the hospitals of the world than through its churches!” HCF Founder, Francis Grim, often declared: “When we are sick, God has our attention. In a hospital bed you are looking in the right direction – Up!”
Refocus Your Energies
We all have important books to read. Recommended films to view. Important letters to write. Projects which have been procrastinated – for far too long. That can now be completed. Especially around the home. Work through every Book of the Bible. “You will keep him in perfect peace, whose mind is stayed on You, because he trusts in You.” Isaiah 26:3
William Carey Bible Institute Resources Available Online
The William Carey Bible Institute is a Reformed, Evangelistic, Biblical and practical Leadership Training Programme with a treasure trove of great resources freely available online. This includes audio lectures, video presentations, lecture notes, manuals, E-books and much more from the WCBI faculty which includes Dr. Al Baker, Ray Comfort, Col. John Eidsmoe, Dr. Robert Fugate, John Gilchrist, Rev. Walter Gschwandtner, Dr. Phil Kayser, Prof. Shai Mulder, Gerhard Nehls, Dr. David Noebel, Rev. Erlo Stegen, Dr. Philip Stott and contributing materials from Rev. Bill Bathman, Dr. Kurt Koch and Dr. Francis Nigel Lee, as well as from myself and other Frontline missionaries.
Free Online Study Courses
WCBI offers courses in: Old Testament Survey, New Testament Survey, Discipleship, Evangelism, Biblical Worldview, The Great Commission, Biblical Law, God and Government, Reformation Studies, World History, Church History, Missions History, Ministering to the Persecuted, Apologetics, Muslim Evangelism, Child Evangelism, Conflict Resolution, Eschatology, Biblical Preaching, Creation Science, Discernment, Spiritual Warfare, Leadership Training, Christian Action, Security and Survival, Christian Journalism and Revival. We are continually uploading new resources and upgrading the online exams.
Reaching and Teaching Remote Regions
WCBI is ideal for home educators, missionaries and evangelists. Originally designed to provide online resources for Persecuted Christians in Restricted Access Areas, WCBI is pleased to make these valuable resources more widely available, particularly in this time when so many are restricted in travel. You can access an entire educational programme of video presentations, audio lectures, lecture notes, workbooks, manuals, textbooks and inspiring examples of excellence from history, in the comfort of your own home. “Expect great things from God! Attempt great things for God!” William Carey.
The Great Commission is Still in Force
Those of us who are under government mandated lockdown may have our travel curtailed, we may not be able to engage in door to door evangelism, sidewalk counselling, ministry in the Mall, but the Great Commission of our Lord Jesus Christ is still in force. We are commanded: “Preach the Word! Be ready in season and out of season. Convince, rebuke, exhort, with all longsuffering and teaching.” 2 Timothy 4:2
How are we to Convince, Rebuke, Exhort, Teach and Preach in a time of Quarantine?
We may be restricted, but the Word of God is the power of God for the Salvation of all who believe. Faith comes by hearing and hearing by the Word of God. By God’s grace and because of modern digital technology, many of us have access to the internet and can use social media to communicate with friends and family and even with strangers far away. Let us use all the social media platforms available to us. You will find great resources available on the Frontline Fellowship, WCBI, ACA, Living Waters Africa, Livingstone Fellowship and other websites, to use and apply in your situation and to your network. By email, WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook messenger and postings, you can share suitable and relevant audios, videos, pictures, posts, Scriptures and through prayer and correspondence, reach people that you may not have been able to reach in any other way. We may be confined, but the Spirit of Almighty God is not limited. There is power in prayer and the Word of God is living and powerful and sharper than any two-edged sword, piercing even to the division of soul and spirit and of joints and marrow and is a discerner of the thoughts and intents of the heart. (Hebrews 4:12). This is an opportunity for us to spend more time studying the Word of God, interceding and communicating with a lost world in confusion and fear. My prison experiences taught me that even when physically confined, we can experience spiritual Revival in our devotional life and greater fervency in intercessory ministry. “But thanks be to God, Who gives us the victory through our Lord Jesus Christ. Therefore, my beloved brethren, be steadfast, immovable, always abounding in the work of the Lord, knowing that your labour is not in vain in the Lord.” 1 Corinthians 15:57-58
Thank you very much for all your prayers, encouragement and support, without which none of our ministries would be possible. May God continue to be your joy and strength.
Yours for the fulfilment of the Great Commission
Before the education mafia gave us Common Core, they gave us Outcome Based Education. Here is a presentation that Sam Blumenfeld did back in 1994 on the subject of Outcome Based Education:
This presentation is available in MP3 format on our Sam Blumenfeld Archive: http://campconstitution.net/sam-blumenfeld-archive/
The History of Pandemics
Pan·dem·ic /panˈdemik/ (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world.
As humans have spread across the world, so have infectious diseases. Even in this modern era, outbreaks are nearly constant, though not every outbreak reaches pandemic level as the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has.
Today’s visualization outlines some of history’s most deadly pandemics, from the Antonine Plague to the current COVID-19 event.
A Timeline of Historical Pandemics
Disease and illnesses have plagued humanity since the earliest days, our mortal flaw. However, it was not until the marked shift to agrarian communities that the scale and spread of these diseases increased dramatically.
Widespread trade created new opportunities for human and animal interactions that sped up such epidemics. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox, and others first appeared during these early years.
The more civilized humans became – with larger cities, more exotic trade routes, and increased contact with different populations of people, animals, and ecosystems – the more likely pandemics would occur.
Here are some of the major pandemics that have occurred over time:
Note: Many of the death toll numbers listed above are best estimates based on available research. Some, such as the Plague of Justinian, are subject to debate based on new evidence.
Despite the persistence of disease and pandemics throughout history, there’s one consistent trend over time – a gradual reduction in the death rate. Healthcare improvements and understanding the factors that incubate pandemics have been powerful tools in mitigating their impact.
Wrath of the Gods
In many ancient societies, people believed that spirits and gods inflicted disease and destruction upon those that deserved their wrath. This unscientific perception often led to disastrous responses that resulted in the deaths of thousands, if not millions.
In the case of Justinian’s plague, the Byzantine historian Procopius of Caesarea traced the origins of the plague (the Yersinia pestis bacteria) to China and northeast India, via land and sea trade routes to Egypt where it entered the Byzantine Empire through Mediterranean ports.
Despite his apparent knowledge of the role geography and trade played in this spread, Procopius laid blame for the outbreak on the Emperor Justinian, declaring him to be either a devil, or invoking God’s punishment for his evil ways. Some historians found that this event could have dashed Emperor Justinian’s efforts to reunite the Western and Eastern remnants of the Roman Empire, and marked the beginning of the Dark Ages.
Luckily, humanity’s understanding of the causes of disease has improved, and this is resulting in a drastic improvement in the response to modern pandemics, albeit slow and incomplete.
The practice of quarantine began during the 14th century, in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague epidemics. Cautious port authorities required ships arriving in Venice from infected ports to sit at anchor for 40 days before landing — the origin of the word quarantine from the Italian “quaranta giorni”, or 40 days.
One of the first instances of relying on geography and statistical analysis was in mid-19th century London, during a cholera outbreak. In 1854, Dr. John Snow came to the conclusion that cholera was spreading via tainted water and decided to display neighborhood mortality data directly on a map. This method revealed a cluster of cases around a specific pump from which people were drawing their water from.
While the interactions created through trade and urban life play a pivotal role, it is also the virulent nature of particular diseases that indicate the trajectory of a pandemic.
Scientists use a basic measure to track the infectiousness of a disease called the reproduction number — also known as R0 or “R naught.” This number tells us how many susceptible people, on average, each sick person will in turn infect.
Measles tops the list, being the most contagious with a R0 range of 12-18. This means a single person can infect, on average, 12 to 18 people in an unvaccinated population.
While measles may be the most virulent, vaccination efforts and herd immunity can curb its spread. The more people are immune to a disease, the less likely it is to proliferate, making vaccinations critical to prevent the resurgence of known and treatable diseases.
It’s hard to calculate and forecast the true impact of COVID-19, as the outbreak is still ongoing and researchers are still learning about this new form of coronavirus.
Urbanization and the Spread of Disease
We arrive at where we began, with rising global connections and interactions as a driving force behind pandemics. From small hunting and gathering tribes to the metropolis, humanity’s reliance on one another has also sparked opportunities for disease to spread.
Urbanization in the developing world is bringing more and more rural residents into denser neighborhoods, while population increases are putting greater pressure on the environment. At the same time, passenger air traffic nearly doubled in the past decade. These macro trends are having a profound impact on the spread of infectious disease.
As organizations and governments around the world ask for citizens to practice social distancing to help reduce the rate of infection, the digital world is allowing people to maintain connections and commerce like never before.
Editor’s Note: The COVID-19 pandemic is in its early stages and it is obviously impossible to predict its future impact. This post and infographic are meant to provide historical context, and we will continue to update it as time goes on to maintain its accuracy.
Update (March 15, 2020): We’ve adjusted the death toll for COVID-19, and will continue to update on a regular basis.
Camp Constitution thanks Visual Capitalist for granting us permission to repost this article. Here is a link to the organization https://www.visualcapitalist.com