This is a news release from Camp Constitution instructor Professor Willie Soon:
A groundbreaking study published in Science of Climate Change challenges the validity and reliability of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models, the projections from which underpin the Paris Climate Agreement and the adoption of “Net Zero” policies.
The research by Dr. Kesten C. Green—a forecasting expert at the University of South Australia and co-author of The Scientific Method: A Guide to Finding Useful Knowledge (Cambridge University Press, 2022)—and astrophysicist Dr. Willie Soon of the Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science, Hungary, found models that included the IPCC’s anthropogenic (human causation) variable failed badly in temperature forecasting comparisons with models that included independent measures of variation in the Sun’s radiation, and even with forecasts that the temperature would be the same as the historical average.
The study, titled “Are Climate Model Forecasts Useful for Policy Making? Effect of Variable Choice on Reliability and Predictive Validity,” tested alternative hypotheses on causes of temperature change in the form of models that included the IPCC anthropogenic variable—mainly carbon dioxide emissions—with and without the IPCC preferred solar variable, and two models with independent solar variables. The models were used to forecast annual Northern Hemisphere land temperature averages with and without urban temperatures—the latter to avoid heat island effects—for various subsets of temperature data from 1850 to 2018.
The results were striking: Models using the IPCC anthropogenic and solar variables produced forecast errors as large as 4°C in forecasting Northern Hemisphere land temperatures that had not been used in estimating the models, and as large as 20°C in forecasting rural temperatures. The independent solar variable models’ errors were mostly much less than 1°C in forecasting the all-land temperatures, and almost always much less than 1°C in forecasting the rural temperatures.
The authors found that while the independent solar variables individually exhibited relationships consistent with physical causality—temperatures tending to increase as solar irradiance increases—that was not the case with the IPCC variables. The IPCC solar variable hardly changed over the 1850 to 2018 period, and higher temperatures were associated with lower irradiance from 1970, a time when fears of a new ice age were replaced by fears of global warming. In a challenge to physics, the IPCC anthropogenic variable similarly failed to exhibit a relationship with temperature prior to 1970 but displayed a strong positive relationship thereafter.
Dr. Green emphasized the policy implications: “Our findings suggest that IPCC modelling fails to support the hypothesis that human carbon dioxide emissions have a meaningful impact on global temperatures. Uncomfortable as it may be for policy makers, unpredictable and uncontrollable variations in radiation from the Sun and volcanic eruptions will continue to determine changes in the Earth’s climate. Policies that deny that reality cannot avoid imposing great costs on the many, to the benefit of very few”.
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